Today begins one of the most exciting sporting events in the United States: the NCAA Division I Men’s basketball tournament. 64 teams battle it out over the next three weekends to crown a national champion. There will be upsets. But in the end, as usual, it will come down to a few power schools. I’ve run a simulator of the tournament using my rankings for each team. I let the simulator run 1,000,000 times to get get percentages for each school’s chance to make the Sweet 16, Elite 8, Final 4 and winning the whole thing. Lets look at the four regions and how the schools should perform in each region.
East Region
Duke is the #1 seed and overall #1 seed in the whole tournament. They are followed by UConn, Michigan State and Kansas. Duke has a 73.78 % chance of advancing to the Sweet 16 and a 36.54 % chance of advancing to the Final Four as the tournament begins.
Surprise teams: St. John’s, UCF
| Seed | School | Rank | Sweet 16 % | Final 4 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Duke | 2 | 73.775 % | 36.543 % |
| 2 | UConn | 5 | 59.473 % | 16.335 % |
| 3 | Michigan State | 10 | 54.581 % | 13.062 % |
| 4 | Kansas | 15 | 43.093 % | 8.475 % |
| 5 | St. John’s | 12 | 46.238 % | 9.613 % |
| 6 | Louisville | 23 | 28.543 % | 4.456 % |
| 7 | UCLA | 27 | 21.762 % | 3.325 % |
| 8 | Ohio State | 31 | 13.054 % | 2.286 % |
| 9 | TCU | 33 | 12.368 % | 2.076 % |
| 10 | UCF | 34 | 17.369 % | 2.254 % |
| 11 | South Florida | 49 | 13.175 % | 1.090 % |
| 12 | Northern Iowa | 97 | 4.989 % | 0.160 % |
| 13 | Cal Baptist | 88 | 5.681 % | 0.208 % |
| 14 | North Dakota State | 123 | 3.700 % | 0.087 % |
| 15 | Furman | 187 | 1.396 % | 0.017 % |
| 16 | Siena | 188 | 0.803 % | 0.014 % |
South Region
Florida is the #1 seed and are ranked #6 in my rankings. Houston is the #2 seed and ranked #4 in my rankings. Florida beat Houston last year in the National Championship game. Houston has a slightly better chance of advancing to the Sweet 16 than Florida. Illinois and Nebraska round out the top four seeds.
Surprise teams: VCU
| Seed | School | Rank | Sweet 16 % | Final 4 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Florida | 6 | 62.683 % | 19.717 % |
| 2 | Houston | 4 | 62.865 % | 22.802 % |
| 3 | Illinois | 13 | 51.374 % | 13.381 % |
| 4 | Nebraska | 14 | 50.639 % | 13.446 % |
| 5 | Vanderbilt | 18 | 39.309 % | 9.298 % |
| 6 | North Carolina | 20 | 31.269 % | 6.697 % |
| 7 | Saint Mary’s | 24 | 23.134 % | 4.703 % |
| 8 | Clemson | 30 | 20.372 % | 3.489 % |
| 9 | Iowa | 37 | 16.429 % | 2.418 % |
| 10 | Texas A&M | 41 | 12.685 % | 1.671 % |
| 11 | VCU | 39 | 14.856 % | 1.804 % |
| 12 | McNeese | 76 | 7.084 % | 0.424 % |
| 13 | Troy | 132 | 2.968 % | 0.073 % |
| 14 | Penn | 140 | 2.500 % | 0.053 % |
| 15 | Idaho | 184 | 1.315 % | 0.021 % |
| 16 | Prairie View A&M | 272 | 0.516 % | 0.003 % |
Midwest Region
Michigan is the #1 seed in the Midwest region. They are followed by Iowa State, Virginia and Alabama. Michigan has a 75.48 % chance of advancing to the Sweet 16. This is the highest of any school in the tournament.
Surprise teams: Santa Clara, Miami (Oh)
| Seed | School | Rank | Sweet 16 % | Final 4 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michigan | 3 | 75.475 % | 37.829 % |
| 2 | Iowa State | 7 | 59.799 % | 16.350 % |
| 3 | Virginia | 11 | 56.404 % | 13.970 % |
| 4 | Alabama | 17 | 46.609 % | 9.041 % |
| 5 | Texas Tech | 19 | 39.583 % | 7.394 % |
| 6 | Tennessee | 25 | 28.761 % | 4.649 % |
| 7 | Kentucky | 32 | 20.692 % | 2.978 % |
| 8 | Georgia | 35 | 12.568 % | 2.060 % |
| 9 | Saint Louis | 38 | 11.311 % | 1.734 % |
| 10 | Santa Clara | 36 | 17.867 % | 2.307 % |
| 11 | Miami (OH) | 57 | 12.017 % | 0.957 % |
| 12 | Akron | 70 | 9.297 % | 0.527 % |
| 13 | Hofstra | 112 | 4.511 % | 0.119 % |
| 14 | Wright State | 134 | 2.817 % | 0.057 % |
| 15 | Tennessee State | 178 | 1.642 % | 0.019 % |
| 16 | Howard | 225 | 0.647 % | 0.009 % |
West Region
Arizona is the #1 seed in the West region. They are followed by Purdue, Gonzaga and Arkansas. Arizona has a 72.79 % chance of advancing to the Sweet 16. They have a 37.992 % chance of advancing to the Final Four. This is the highest percentage of all the schools in the tournament.
Surprise teams: None
| Seed | School | Rank | Sweet 16 % | Final 4 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arizona | 1 | 72.785 % | 37.992 % |
| 2 | Purdue | 8 | 60.181 % | 15.498 % |
| 3 | Gonzaga | 9 | 55.328 % | 13.985 % |
| 4 | Arkansas | 16 | 48.740 % | 9.369 % |
| 5 | Wisconsin | 22 | 39.115 % | 6.006 % |
| 6 | BYU | 21 | 30.269 % | 5.483 % |
| 7 | Miami (FL) | 29 | 24.540 % | 3.536 % |
| 8 | Villanova | 26 | 13.601 % | 2.835 % |
| 9 | Utah State | 28 | 12.898 % | 2.607 % |
| 10 | Missouri | 47 | 13.350 % | 1.194 % |
| 11 | Texas | 51 | 11.923 % | 1.046 % |
| 12 | High Point | 99 | 6.177 % | 0.186 % |
| 13 | Hawaii | 101 | 5.968 % | 0.179 % |
| 14 | Kennesaw State | 135 | 2.480 % | 0.046 % |
| 15 | Queens (NC) | 175 | 1.928 % | 0.025 % |
| 16 | Long Island | 190 | 0.716 % | 0.012 % |
Top 7-10 seeds advancing to Sweet 16
| Seed | School | Rank | Sweet 16 % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7-W | Miami (FL) | 29 | 24.540 % |
| 8-S | Clemson | 30 | 20.372 % |
| 9-S | Iowa | 37 | 16.429 % |
| 10-M | Santa Clara | 36 | 17.867 % |