Based on 1,000,000 simulations#
| Rank |
Team |
Sweet 16 % |
Elite 8 % |
Final 4 % |
Win % |
| 1 |
Arizona |
72.785% |
53.988% |
37.992% |
15.973% |
| 2 |
Duke |
73.775% |
52.426% |
36.543% |
14.597% |
| 3 |
Michigan |
75.475% |
54.518% |
37.829% |
14.494% |
| 4 |
Houston |
62.865% |
38.811% |
22.802% |
5.710% |
| 5 |
Florida |
62.683% |
36.304% |
19.717% |
4.316% |
| 6 |
UConn |
59.473% |
35.166% |
16.335% |
3.978% |
| 7 |
Iowa St. |
59.799% |
35.014% |
16.350% |
3.790% |
| 8 |
Purdue |
60.181% |
34.041% |
15.498% |
3.733% |
| 9 |
Gonzaga |
55.328% |
31.239% |
13.985% |
3.290% |
| 10 |
Virginia |
56.404% |
31.047% |
13.970% |
2.977% |
| 11 |
Michigan St. |
54.581% |
29.639% |
13.062% |
2.892% |
| 12 |
Illinois |
51.374% |
25.801% |
13.381% |
2.507% |
| 13 |
Nebraska |
50.639% |
26.554% |
13.446% |
2.497% |
| 14 |
St. John’s (NY) |
46.238% |
18.456% |
9.613% |
1.963% |
| 15 |
Arkansas |
48.740% |
18.432% |
9.369% |
1.848% |
| 16 |
Alabama |
46.609% |
17.950% |
9.041% |
1.663% |
| 17 |
Kansas |
43.093% |
16.612% |
8.475% |
1.649% |
| 18 |
Vanderbilt |
39.309% |
19.481% |
9.298% |
1.535% |
| 19 |
Texas Tech |
39.583% |
14.983% |
7.394% |
1.278% |
| 20 |
North Carolina |
31.269% |
14.206% |
6.697% |
1.010% |
| 21 |
Wisconsin |
39.115% |
13.093% |
6.006% |
0.950% |
| 22 |
BYU |
30.269% |
14.707% |
5.483% |
0.903% |
| 23 |
Louisville |
28.543% |
12.675% |
4.456% |
0.629% |
| 24 |
Tennessee |
28.761% |
12.935% |
4.649% |
0.626% |
| 25 |
Saint Mary’s (CA) |
23.134% |
10.773% |
4.703% |
0.601% |
| 26 |
Miami (FL) |
24.540% |
10.612% |
3.536% |
0.450% |
| 27 |
UCLA |
21.762% |
9.935% |
3.325% |
0.432% |
| 28 |
Villanova |
13.601% |
6.532% |
2.835% |
0.397% |
| 29 |
Clemson |
20.372% |
8.796% |
3.489% |
0.375% |
| 30 |
Utah St. |
12.898% |
6.101% |
2.607% |
0.345% |
| 31 |
Kentucky |
20.692% |
9.036% |
2.978% |
0.337% |
| 32 |
Ohio St. |
13.054% |
5.575% |
2.286% |
0.270% |
| 33 |
UCF |
17.369% |
7.363% |
2.254% |
0.251% |
| 34 |
TCU |
12.368% |
5.178% |
2.076% |
0.238% |
| 35 |
Santa Clara |
17.867% |
7.381% |
2.307% |
0.231% |
| 36 |
Iowa |
16.429% |
6.564% |
2.418% |
0.226% |
| 37 |
Georgia |
12.568% |
5.335% |
2.060% |
0.203% |
| 38 |
Saint Louis |
11.311% |
4.622% |
1.734% |
0.169% |
| 39 |
VCU |
14.856% |
5.077% |
1.804% |
0.148% |
| 40 |
Texas A&M |
12.685% |
4.801% |
1.671% |
0.126% |
| 41 |
Missouri |
13.350% |
4.623% |
1.194% |
0.095% |
| 42 |
Texas |
11.923% |
4.100% |
1.046% |
0.085% |
| 43 |
South Fla. |
13.175% |
4.355% |
1.090% |
0.079% |
| 44 |
Miami (OH) |
12.017% |
3.909% |
0.957% |
0.061% |
| 45 |
Akron |
9.297% |
1.887% |
0.527% |
0.025% |
| 46 |
McNeese |
7.084% |
1.774% |
0.424% |
0.015% |
| 47 |
California Baptist |
5.681% |
0.907% |
0.208% |
0.007% |
| 48 |
High Point |
6.177% |
0.897% |
0.186% |
0.007% |
| 49 |
Hawaii |
5.968% |
0.857% |
0.179% |
0.006% |
| 50 |
UNI |
4.989% |
0.744% |
0.160% |
0.004% |
| 51 |
Hofstra |
4.511% |
0.629% |
0.119% |
0.003% |
| 52 |
North Dakota St. |
3.700% |
0.670% |
0.087% |
0.002% |
| 53 |
Troy |
2.968% |
0.487% |
0.073% |
0.001% |
| 54 |
Wright St. |
2.817% |
0.455% |
0.057% |
0.001% |
| 55 |
Kennesaw St. |
2.480% |
0.410% |
0.046% |
0.001% |
| 56 |
Penn |
2.500% |
0.352% |
0.053% |
0.000% |
| 57 |
Queens (NC) |
1.928% |
0.270% |
0.025% |
0.000% |
| 58 |
Furman |
1.396% |
0.198% |
0.017% |
0.000% |
| 59 |
Idaho |
1.315% |
0.178% |
0.021% |
0.000% |
| 60 |
Tennessee St. |
1.642% |
0.224% |
0.019% |
0.000% |
| 61 |
Siena |
0.803% |
0.101% |
0.014% |
0.000% |
| 62 |
LIU |
0.716% |
0.099% |
0.012% |
0.000% |
| 63 |
Howard |
0.647% |
0.077% |
0.009% |
0.000% |
| 64 |
Prairie View |
0.516% |
0.040% |
0.003% |
0.000% |