Everybody else is doing it, so I thought I’d create my own tournament projections. Based on my current rankings, here are my projections based on the highest ranked team in each conference and then the 37 highest ranked teams left.

Here’s my list of the teams that would be in right now based on my rankings and who is ranked the highest in their conference:

Rank School Conference Berth W L PF PA Rating SOS
1 MICHIGAN Big Ten Automatic 26 2 2496 1923 117.656 110.765
2 DUKE ACC Automatic 26 2 2325 1761 117.376 109.821
3 ARIZONA Big 12 Automatic 26 2 2441 1929 117.370 110.266
4 UCONN Big East Automatic 26 3 2290 1888 116.145 109.666
5 PURDUE Big Ten At-large 22 5 2239 1870 115.463 110.488
6 IOWA ST. Big 12 At-large 24 4 2319 1818 115.435 109.115
7 HOUSTON Big 12 At-large 23 5 2146 1744 115.357 109.900
8 GONZAGA West Coast Automatic 28 2 2606 1984 115.291 108.018
9 ILLINOIS Big Ten At-large 22 6 2384 1933 115.112 110.262
10 KANSAS Big 12 At-large 21 7 2146 1909 115.089 111.253
11 MICHIGAN ST. Big Ten At-large 22 5 2118 1786 115.067 110.044
12 NEBRASKA Big Ten At-large 24 4 2197 1831 115.055 109.134
13 FLORIDA SEC Automatic 22 6 2416 1994 114.911 110.067
14 VIRGINIA ACC At-large 25 3 2305 1897 114.826 108.427
15 TEXAS TECH Big 12 At-large 21 7 2297 2021 114.638 110.826
16 ALABAMA SEC At-large 21 7 2601 2340 114.609 110.869
17 ARKANSAS SEC At-large 21 7 2527 2199 114.040 110.063
18 BYU Big 12 At-large 20 8 2393 2104 114.018 110.536
19 VANDERBILT SEC At-large 22 6 2443 2070 113.995 109.435
20 NORTH CAROLINA ACC At-large 22 6 2257 1981 113.879 109.460
21 VILLANOVA Big East At-large 22 6 2181 1963 113.439 109.360
22 TENNESSEE SEC At-large 20 8 2253 1936 113.431 109.591
23 LOUISVILLE ACC At-large 20 8 2418 2015 113.367 109.612
24 SAINT MARY’S (CA) West Coast At-large 26 4 2361 1931 113.094 107.434
25 UCF Big 12 At-large 20 7 2214 2090 113.060 109.527
26 IOWA Big Ten At-large 20 8 2126 1815 112.841 109.026
27 UTAH ST. Mountain West Automatic 23 5 2341 1953 112.683 107.885
28 WISCONSIN Big Ten At-large 19 9 2316 2132 112.678 109.828
29 UCLA Big Ten At-large 19 9 2183 2000 112.571 109.721
30 SAINT LOUIS Atlantic 10 Automatic 25 3 2495 1916 112.547 105.784
31 MIAMI (FL) ACC At-large 22 6 2322 1977 112.542 107.837
32 NC STATE ACC At-large 19 9 2352 2082 112.492 109.602
33 KENTUCKY SEC At-large 18 10 2265 2028 112.490 109.789
34 SMU ACC At-large 19 9 2413 2167 112.265 109.562
35 CLEMSON ACC At-large 20 8 2087 1837 112.169 108.653
36 SANTA CLARA West Coast At-large 23 7 2504 2173 111.905 107.871
37 GEORGIA SEC At-large 19 9 2515 2205 111.813 108.711
38 OHIO ST. Big Ten At-large 17 11 2227 2048 111.773 109.906
39 TCU Big 12 At-large 18 10 2193 2016 111.748 109.090
40 AUBURN SEC At-large 15 13 2338 2232 111.704 110.879
41 CALIFORNIA ACC At-large 20 8 2198 2032 111.697 108.382
42 SAN DIEGO ST. Mountain West At-large 19 8 2141 1892 111.583 108.286
43 TEXAS A&M SEC At-large 19 9 2484 2211 111.552 108.454
44 MISSOURI SEC At-large 19 9 2241 2101 111.469 108.547
45 INDIANA Big Ten At-large 17 11 2221 2020 111.458 109.544
52 MIAMI (OH) Mid-American Automatic 28 0 2566 2075 111.046 103.158
59 BELMONT Missouri Valley Automatic 26 4 2531 2166 110.428 105.067
60 SOUTH FLA. AAC Automatic 20 8 2470 2162 110.355 107.054
71 LIBERTY Conference USA Automatic 23 4 2136 1876 109.730 104.330
78 YALE Ivy League Automatic 21 4 2074 1786 109.343 104.316
83 MCNEESE Southland Automatic 23 5 2265 1858 109.055 103.884
88 UNCW Colonial Automatic 24 4 2155 1880 108.868 103.698
89 UTAH VALLEY WAC Automatic 20 7 2169 1803 108.852 104.681
97 HIGH POINT Big South Automatic 26 4 2733 2110 108.315 102.329
99 HAWAII Big West Automatic 19 7 2067 1788 108.269 104.705
120 NORTH DAKOTA ST. Summit Automatic 23 6 2367 2042 107.504 103.121
136 MARSHALL Sun Belt Automatic 19 11 2436 2316 106.792 104.988
137 AUSTIN PEAY Atlantic Sun Automatic 21 7 2281 2008 106.785 103.160
148 PORTLAND ST. Big Sky Automatic 18 8 1998 1808 106.515 103.269
151 MERRIMACK Metro Atlantic Automatic 20 9 2013 1958 106.485 104.209
156 ETSU Southern Automatic 21 9 2349 2055 106.316 103.295
158 WRIGHT ST. Horizon Automatic 19 11 2394 2192 106.248 104.243
161 NAVY Patriot Automatic 24 6 2234 1894 106.170 101.422
199 LIU Northeast Automatic 19 10 2150 2101 104.954 103.187
206 UT MARTIN Ohio Valley Automatic 20 9 2076 1838 104.853 101.966
213 BETHUNE-COOKMAN SWAC Automatic 15 13 2110 2160 104.700 104.543
237 UMBC America East Automatic 18 8 1945 1777 103.960 101.252
240 HOWARD MEAC Automatic 18 10 2150 1907 103.793 101.616

First Four Out

These are the next four at-large schools after the final at-large selection (i.e., at-large ranks 38–41).

Rank School Conference W L PF PA Rating SOS
46 VIRGINIA TECH ACC 18 10 2206 2073 111.334 109.055
47 NEW MEXICO Mountain West 21 7 2258 1944 111.327 107.353
48 SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA Big Ten 18 10 2229 2149 111.268 109.248
49 TEXAS SEC 17 11 2369 2119 111.223 108.824

I’ll try and keep this updated daily between now and the end of the conference tournaments. Just click on the tournament projections link.

Complete Division I Rankings
Tournament Projections