AFC East 2025 Season Preview – A Data-Driven Look
The AFC East has been one of the NFL’s most intriguing divisions over the past five seasons. Buffalo has established itself as the consistent powerhouse, Miami has experienced both explosive offensive highs and sudden collapses, and the Jets and Patriots have alternated between rebuilds and defensive-driven flashes of competitiveness.
Using adjusted offense, defense, and power ratings from 2020 through 2024, we can project the division’s outlook for 2025 without relying on speculation about free agency or draft picks. These data-driven metrics highlight the trends that define each team’s performance and provide a foundation for forecasting the year ahead.
Division Overview (2020–2024)
The metrics show that Buffalo has dominated the AFC East offensively, with a scoring output consistently above +5 points relative to league-average defenses. Miami, despite an offensive explosion in 2023 (+6.93), saw a sharp regression in 2024 (-3.55). The Patriots and Jets have each struggled offensively, with the Patriots bottoming out at -8.57 in 2023 and the Jets failing to post a positive offensive score in any of the last five seasons.
Defensive Trends
The Bills’ defense has remained steady, averaging +2.27 points over league norms from 2020–2024. The Jets spiked to +4.52 in 2022 but have since regressed, while Miami’s defense has been near neutral. New England’s once-dominant defense has steadily declined, dropping to -2.17 in 2024.
Offensive Trends
Buffalo’s offense has consistently ranked among the league’s best, reaching a peak of +8.36 in 2024. Miami’s 2023 output was remarkable, but the 2024 season revealed its volatility. The Patriots and Jets, meanwhile, have faced chronic offensive inefficiency, with both teams recording multiple seasons below -5.0.
Power Ratings
Buffalo’s overall rating remains above 103, signaling a well-rounded roster. Miami typically hovers around the league average (100), while the Jets (96.93) and Patriots (95.65) enter 2025 below the baseline 100-point mark.
Team-by-Team Data Analysis
Buffalo Bills
Five-Year Offensive Trend: +6.49 → +6.83 → +6.03 → +5.01 → +8.36
Five-Year Defensive Trend: +1.24 → +4.29 → +2.81 → +2.09 → +0.93
2024 Rating: 103.19
Buffalo’s performance data reveals a franchise operating at peak efficiency. While their defense has slightly declined since its 2021 high (+4.29), their offensive surge in 2024 (+8.36) suggests a team that has fully embraced a high-octane passing attack. Over the past five years, the Bills have averaged nearly a touchdown more per game than league-average defenses allow—a testament to their offensive consistency.
Data Outlook for 2025:
Expect Buffalo to remain the division’s leader, with a projected record of 11–6 based purely on their superior scoring margin and balanced roster.
Miami Dolphins
Five-Year Offensive Trend: +0.10 → -3.38 → +2.77 → +6.93 → -3.55
Five-Year Defensive Trend: +2.15 → +0.37 → -1.64 → -2.93 → +0.13
2024 Rating: 98.19
Miami’s data tells a story of highs and lows. Their 2023 offense (+6.93) was among the NFL’s elite, but their 2024 collapse (-3.55) highlights a lack of consistency. Defensively, Miami has hovered around league average, with minor positive and negative swings over the past five years.
Data Outlook for 2025:
If Miami’s offense rebounds to even half its 2023 output, they could secure second place. Based on trends, a 9–8 record seems realistic, keeping them in playoff contention.
New England Patriots
Five-Year Offensive Trend: -4.28 → +3.76 → -1.02 → -8.57 → -6.33
Five-Year Defensive Trend: +2.63 → +3.80 → +1.81 → +0.76 → -2.17
2024 Rating: 95.65
The Patriots’ numbers illustrate a steep decline. From a brief offensive resurgence in 2021 (+3.76), they’ve since fallen sharply. Their 2023 performance (-8.57) was among the worst offensive outputs in the league, and the defense has followed suit with negative marks in 2024.
Data Outlook for 2025:
Without offensive improvement, New England is likely to remain near the bottom of the division. Their data projects a 6–11 finish.
New York Jets
Five-Year Offensive Trend: -9.07 → -3.77 → -4.92 → -6.78 → -2.97
Five-Year Defensive Trend: -3.41 → -6.85 → +4.52 → +1.18 → -1.64
2024 Rating: 96.93
The Jets are defined by defensive peaks and offensive valleys. Their 2022 defense (+4.52) was a high point, but inconsistency has kept them from climbing above .500. Offensively, they remain among the league’s least productive teams, despite slight improvements in 2024.
Data Outlook for 2025:
Expect another middle-of-the-pack season. A projected 7–10 record aligns with their recent trends.
Projected AFC East Standings (2025)
| Team | Offense (Avg) | Defense (Avg) | Rating (2024) | 2025 Projection |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | +6.94 | +2.27 | 103.19 | 11–6 (Division) |
| Miami Dolphins | +0.79 | -0.38 | 98.19 | 9–8 |
| New York Jets | -5.10 | -1.24 | 96.93 | 7–10 |
| New England Patriots | -3.69 | +1.01 | 95.65 | 6–11 |
Conclusion
The data from 2020 to 2024 makes one thing clear: Buffalo is the standard-bearer in the AFC East, with the division title firmly within their grasp for 2025. Miami’s path to success depends on rediscovering its offensive identity, while the Jets’ fate hinges on improving their perennially weak offense. The Patriots face the steepest climb, with a multi-year rebuild suggested by both offensive and defensive trends.